Potential Tropical Storm Patty Could Have Florida Path

Meteorologists are keeping an eye on an area of potential tropical development in the Caribbean, and should a storm form, its track could take it toward Florida.
The system is near where Tropical Storm Nadine formed last week. Nadine formed slowly, and then its path took the storm through Belize, into Central America and into Mexico, where it dissolved. Remnants of the storm emerged into the Pacific Ocean and reformed into Hurricane Kristy, currently a Category 4 hurricane with no direct impacts to land expected.
There is still more than a month left in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the next storm will be named Patty. It follows Hurricane Oscar, which recently impacted Cuba.
If the system in the Caribbean becomes a storm, it will likely form between October 30 and November 2, an updated AccuWeather forecast said.
It’s unlikely the storm will impact states west of Alabama, AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva told Newsweek, but the atmospheric conditions could prove favorable for a Florida path.
Caribbean water temperatures are still several degrees above average, and low wind shear will provide favorable conditions for a storm to develop. Storms that form in this region during late October typically move west across Central America, as Nadine did, or east toward Cuba. DaSilva doubts the storm will follow Nadine’s path.
Should the storm take aim at Florida, it could hit the state’s western side, which recently battled back-to-back major hurricanes with Helene in late September and Milton in early October. Depending on atmospheric conditions, the storm could cut inland to impact the Carolinas.
“As far as Florida goes, what would have to happen essentially is there would have to be some sort of dip in the jet stream to pull that storm to the north,” DaSilva said. “It is certainly possible that that happens. There have been storms during the month of November that have been pulled north towards the Florida peninsula.”
DaSilva said it’s more likely that a storm could impact south Florida rather than Florida’s Big Bend region, but it’s difficult to predict a path this far out.
DaSilva said the storm’s final path comes down to where the dip in the jet stream occurs, and when.
“That’s going to eventually have the final say of where this ends up,” he said.
Regardless of its path, DaSilva warned the environment was “extremely favorable for development.”
Despite concern from other meteorologists, the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast shows that tropical activity is not expected in the Atlantic Ocean over the next seven days.